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A decade following the UK embarked on a hasty referendum that divided the country and triggered disorder, a advisory comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.

Policymakers and citizens drifted into Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating convulsions for which no one is equipped.

That represents the warning from two prominent writers from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.

Governmental Structures Unprepared

The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a potentially contentious and monumental public vote.

"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can build support rapidly," the commentator stated. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our islands remains highly fragile."

Book Publication Seeks to Provoke Discussion

The duo have examined the political, financial and societal arguments for any governmental shift in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They seek to stir debate on the topic with a series of lectures that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.

"What concerns all parties, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.

"We do not want a referendum on a binary, ambiguous question whose consequences have remained undefined because then you land with an highly divided society where the losing side are unable to accept losing and the victorious side are uncertain precisely what it is that they have achieved."

Legal Framework

Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would approve.

Sinn Féin and other nationalists say this point is imminent, and a group called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the likelihood, leaving it unclear if and when there might be a national vote.

Absence of Serious Debate

Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has hidden the absence of informed dialogue, said McBride.

"Many are for or against the notion but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A great deal has occurred in academia but hardly any elected officials or activists want to engage even with the fundamentals. To illustrate, what sort of state should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"

Volume's Strategy

In the book, none of the commentators endorses unification or the status quo. They composes two articles that seek objectivity in laying out the argument for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, gathering economic and social statistics, past examples and governmental frameworks.

Arguments cover flags and symbols, taxes, health services, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to inform and encourage dialogue.

"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there has not yet occurred a discussion," commented O’Toole. "Debate suggests an acceptance of the idea that there might be valid points on both sides."

Dual Referendums

A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where citizens report they prefer unity but refuse increased taxation or implementing a new flag to reflect unionists' British culture.

"Authorities in Dublin does need to determine what the offer from nationalist groups is other than just saying: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we value you'," said the commentator.

Possibility of Referendum

McBride considers a national vote in his lifetime is probable and that it could happen abruptly. "It is possible just a mad or a ill-advised or a feckless secretary of state who says: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"

Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, legitimate arguments, he stated. "One side will prevail on this issue and the other side will in the end not succeed but all factions has has something to gain from the other's viewpoints."

Appeal for Wider Dialogue

Westminster needed to participate in the debate, urged the analyst. "This is about the United Kingdom. It is a UK matter equally as it is an Irish question."