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Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the tension caused by the presentation of a new 28-article proposal for ending the war appeared – momentarily – to have been contained. A American diplomat spoke of "notable headway" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its response: a renewed assault of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.

The Cycle of Diplomacy and Destruction

The succession of opposing developments captured the harsh reality of the current period. By day, diplomatic battles are waged: hopeful statements are released from multiple capitals. Immense energy is allocated on restraining particular approaches. By night, Moscow brutally reminds the world that, for them, war remains the key method for achieving "peace".

Nighttime Reality

As military strikes progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's defenselessness was revealed. Ukraine is equipped to monitor missile launches from across the border, a capability enabled by up-to-date information. From observation points, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been dispatched to counter approaching cruise missiles roared overhead – sophisticated military planes supplied to Ukraine by European allies.

Shortly after, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons thundered: defensive missiles fired to intercept a hostile projectile. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, presumably provided by partner states. Every deployment creates sudden vibrations, causing tremors. The brief panic quickly transforms into sober acceptance: perhaps the approaching threat won't cause damage this time, preventing destruction from devastation and further power outages.

Continuous Dangers

Not long after, a large-caliber weapon opened up on a aerial vehicle close by, part of a rapid response unit – most likely imported technology. Sadly, the shots failed to hit the opposing UAV – it continued its flight toward its target.

Intermittently, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv greeted the morning news: seven people killed, destruction and utility failures in numerous residences as a result of the night's assault. As always, everyone still continued their routines – living the war. But those 24 hours illustrated Ukraine's critical military reliance on Western support – a dependence that neighboring countries are evidently unprepared to fill in the short term.

Unsuccessful Negotiations

The 28-point plan from US administration sparked intense emotion, debate and deep concern – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after earlier high-level meetings and bilateral conferences.

Every new proposal from Washington unfolds according to the consistent cycle: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, effectively counters. They manage the tension but never actually secure success. This pattern will, certainly, continue.

Tactical Assessments

It is convenient to criticize certain parties of consistently pushing Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. Washington works based on a principle familiar among experienced diplomats: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have been unable to protect through force. The US administration presumes that it is unfeasible to pressure the Kremlin to abandon the areas that it presently holds in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.

The problem is that while accepting these circumstances, American administration does minimal to prevent Kremlin actions, through words or deeds, from believing that the status quo will not change more in its favour in the months ahead.

Conflicting Perspectives

Therefore, Moscow is convinced that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its supporters are coming close to fatigue. Their reason to agree to terms that does not give them the maximum possible gain is virtually nonexistent. There may be many attempts to achieve ceasefire, but they will continue as long as Russia's leadership remains completely certain in the result.

On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still endure, gradually sacrificing civilians and areas but averting a total frontline collapse until conditions improve in its benefit.

Current Realities

Factually, there are no real preconditions for a ceasefire. Now, individual motivations are entering the equation: personal goals to broker a ceasefire and achieve global acclaim, and Kyiv's twin challenges – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the flag against any initiative Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their priority does not move to internal issues. And although their task will now be considerably more difficult after latest incidents, it remains quite doubtful that this will modify their basic position.

These two forces are influencing discussions.

Assessment and Future

It took a only one week to kill the proposed articles of the most recent proposal. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by American leadership, opposition by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with calming attempts of negotiators, and finally, current information leaks, all achieved their purpose.

While new initiatives based on established approaches are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off negotiation assaults from Washington that are based on Russian demands and reflect particular unwillingness to alter the situation, if they stand together and improve their protective measures at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to repel nightly air assaults will, for the foreseeable future, primarily depend on ongoing international assistance.